According to a new forecast report by the technology analyst firm Ovum, the market for FTTx optics will reach a new record level in 2015, following a record-breaking 2014. The report forecasts that revenue FTTx optical components will exceed $1 billion this year, up from $953 million in 2014. Next year's market for the technology is also projected to remain strong, with a forecasted revenue of $985 million.
Ovum concludes that demand for PON equipment – both OLTs and ONTs – is driving the FTTx optics market to record levels. Julie Kunstler, principal analyst in the firm's intelligent networks and components team and author of the report, adds, “Numerous positive factors are driving the FTTx optics market to new levels, including FTTH network deployments by China Mobile and the continued network builds by China Telecom and China Unicom.”
Other positive trends contributing to the strong growth in the market, according to Ovum, include FTTx network deployments by North American MSOs; Google Fiber’s expansion plan; US telco deployment plans; European deployment plans; continued deployments in the Middle East; small deployments in South and Central America and Africa; and a general global movement toward FTTP or FTTH (both of which require more PON ONT optics).
Other key forecast findings highlighted by Ovum’s new report include the following points:
-- Total OLT transceivers are forecast to reach 6.5 million in 2015, an increase of 19% on 2014.
-- Next-gen OLT transceivers are forecast to represent just over 12% of the total OLT transceiver market in 2020, with 10G EPON OLTs representing the largest segment within next-gen PON.
-- The total ONT transceiver/BOSA market is forecast to exceed 71 million in 2015, an increase of 18% from 2014.
-- Next-gen ONT transceivers/BOSAs are forecast to represent just over 9% of the total ONT transceiver/BOSA market in 2020 with 10/1 and 10/10 EPON ONTs representing the largest segment within next-gen PON.
Notably, Ovum’s PON optical components forecast does not include any large FTTx deployments in the heavily populated countries of India, Brazil, and Indonesia. “Large deployments in these countries would provide a significant uptick to the units forecast and consequently to revenues,” adds Ovum's Kunstler. “As would faster deployments of next-gen PON, because the ASPs for next-gen PON optics are higher than those for non-next-gen.”
The largest potential downside to the forecast could come from a slowdown in FTTx deployments by the Chinese operators, speculates the analyst. China is the single largest consumer of PON optics in the world and any slowdown would negatively impact the forecast, notes Kunstler. However, Ovum believes that China’s newest operator entrant into FTTx, China Mobile, is well positioned to deploy an FTTx network, bring existing mobile customers onto its new wireline broadband network, and offer additional services.
“This strong outlook benefits Japanese optical subcomponent vendors such as laser and lens manufacturers," she concludes. "Meanwhile, the wireline broadband FTTx market upswing is having a positive impact on component and equipment vendors.”
Learn more about the report.
